Thankfully, My 2020 Prediction was Wrong. Trump Lost.

If it had not been 2020, I probably would have been right.

Photo by Jon Tyson on Unsplash

Last year about this time I wrote a prediction for 2020: Donald Trump would win reelection. I cringed just writing it. I was deathly afraid of being right.

I based my prediction on simple incumbency advantage, rabid Trumpism, and huge dose of pessimism.

Of course, none of us regular folks had heard of COVID-19 when I wrote that. The ensuing pandemic changed everything.

You know the story. Trump denied, blamed, lied, and obfuscated about the virus. He turned it into a political weapon. Mask wearing became unpatriotic, so did peaceful protesting.

There were any number of moments in 2020 where Trump could have turned it around for himself. Such as:

  • Supporting doctors and scientists instead of undermining them.
  • Not suggesting Americans drink or inject bleach.
  • Not teargassing peaceful protesters after the death of George Floyd.
  • Not staging the awkward “Bible photo-op” at St. John’s Church on June 1.
  • Showing a dose of humility and human understanding after contracting Covid himself in October.
  • Calling for $2,000/person direct Covid relief at any time between April and December.

Of course, any one of those things would have required Trump to be someone other than Trump. Remember that old Republican adage “Let Trump be Trump.”

For once, I’m glad we did just that. As bad as 2020 has been, letting Trump be Trump finally paid off.

He Trumped himself out of a job.

We’ve got to do better than this, folks.

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